Difference between revisions of "Simple population model"
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This is the output of a simple iterative model done on a spreadsheet, where people are born, have babies 30 years later and die when they are 80. Birth rates vary with [[GDP per capita]], modified by the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality GINI coefficient]. In the model immigration is of people in their 20′s, about 10% of whom settle permanently and have children too, roughly what the UK has been doing over the last 20 years. | This is the output of a simple iterative model done on a spreadsheet, where people are born, have babies 30 years later and die when they are 80. Birth rates vary with [[GDP per capita]], modified by the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality GINI coefficient]. In the model immigration is of people in their 20′s, about 10% of whom settle permanently and have children too, roughly what the UK has been doing over the last 20 years. | ||
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Revision as of 17:57, 26 October 2018
The UK is overpopulated in the sense that its current ecological footprint is significantly larger than its capacity. This means that its popultion is consuming more environmental resources than are actually available to it.
So is it doomed? Probably not.
Its current population represents a sort of high water mark, and is due to go into decline as its rapidly ageing population dies off leaving smaller numbers of younger people with low birth rates in its wake. Coupled with this is a pretty rapid reduction in environmental impact per unit of GDP production that’s been going on since the 1960's.
Provided there is also some imminent reduction in income disparity (down to current Scandinavian levels) to boost GDP and birth rates, and the rapid convergence on today’s state-of-the-art (also Scandinavian) continues, the trends suggest something like this:
So perhaps by about 2100, the UK will end up with a sustainable population at roughly 40 million pretty well off people.
This is the output of a simple iterative model done on a spreadsheet, where people are born, have babies 30 years later and die when they are 80. Birth rates vary with GDP per capita, modified by the GINI coefficient. In the model immigration is of people in their 20′s, about 10% of whom settle permanently and have children too, roughly what the UK has been doing over the last 20 years.
This is an exciting time to starting out!
