Difference between revisions of "Simple population model"
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===Data & Hypothesis=== | ===Data & Hypothesis=== | ||
| − | The UK's current population represents a sort of high water mark, and is due to go into decline as its rapidly ageing population dies off leaving smaller numbers of younger people with low birth rates in its wake. This is | + | The UK's current population represents a sort of high water mark, and is due to go into decline as its rapidly ageing population dies off leaving smaller numbers of younger people with low birth rates in its wake. Germany and Japan are already in decline. The developing world is just one generation behind. This is a natural transition that happens as countries "modernise". Coupled with this reduction in natural population growth is a pretty rapid reduction in environmental impact per unit of GDP production that’s been going on since the 1960's in the developed world. |
===Model & Validation=== | ===Model & Validation=== | ||
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[[File:Ukpop+ecofp.jpg]][[File:Ukgdppercap.jpg]] | [[File:Ukpop+ecofp.jpg]][[File:Ukgdppercap.jpg]] | ||
| − | => By about 2100, the UK | + | => By about 2100, the UK could end up ecologically sustainable with a stable population of about 40 million pretty well off people. Much depends on the decisions we make now and that students make during their lives. |
'''What an exciting time to be starting out!''' | '''What an exciting time to be starting out!''' | ||
Revision as of 16:54, 27 October 2018
Here is an exercise for GSCE/A level Geography students developed for RIS (Researchers in Schools)
I like it because it speaks directly to the students' futures.
The UK is overpopulated in the sense that its current ecological footprint is significantly larger than its ecological capacity. This means that its popultion is consuming more environmental resources than are actually available to it.
So are we all doomed? Let's find out.
Data & Hypothesis
The UK's current population represents a sort of high water mark, and is due to go into decline as its rapidly ageing population dies off leaving smaller numbers of younger people with low birth rates in its wake. Germany and Japan are already in decline. The developing world is just one generation behind. This is a natural transition that happens as countries "modernise". Coupled with this reduction in natural population growth is a pretty rapid reduction in environmental impact per unit of GDP production that’s been going on since the 1960's in the developed world.
Model & Validation
Students construct a simple stepwise forecast model of the UK's population, GDP and ecological footprint on a spreadsheet, where people are born, have babies 30 years later and die when they are 80. Birth rates vary with GDP per capita, modified by the GINI coefficient. In the model, immigration is of people in their 20′s, about 10% of whom settle permanently and have children too, roughly what the UK has been doing over the last 20 years. All assumptions can be changed to investigate their impact and the model can be validated against data from 1900 to the present.
Results & Conclusions
Provided there is
- some imminent reduction in income disparity (down to current Scandinavian levels) to boost GDP and birth rates
- the rapid convergence on today’s environmental state-of-the-art (also Scandinavian) continues
the trends suggest something like this:
=> By about 2100, the UK could end up ecologically sustainable with a stable population of about 40 million pretty well off people. Much depends on the decisions we make now and that students make during their lives.
What an exciting time to be starting out!
